Some News About Dropouts in the United States

We have been fortunate at North Fayette Valley in that there have not been too many dropouts in recent years, though from my perspective, one dropout is too many.  Our graduation percentage is above the state average and generally speaking, we have been below state averages with dropouts as well.  The issue of dropouts is significant on the national perspective, and in some places, dropout rates have been incredibly high, even approaching 45 to 50%.  When “No Child Left Behind” legislation was passed about fifteen years ago, one of the goals was to sharply reduce the number of students that dropped out of high school, and at the same time, see that all students had a quality education before they graduated from high school.  People can argue all they want about NCLB, but one of the successes has been the issue of reducing dropouts.

There has been a lot of criticism directed toward American education due to the dropout problem, and it served as one of the reasons some opponents piled on about poor performing schools.  In many respects I am of the same notion.  When nearly half of a class drops out before graduation, that is a problem!  Unlike some I do not put this all at the feet of the schools.  There is a direct connection to poverty that cannot be ignored that is as much, if not more so, to blame.  That said, while some public school critics continue to point out the issue of dropouts, there is some very interesting news.

Dropouts have decline across all demographic groups.  Since they started charting dropout data, Hispanic and African-American students have had the highest dropout rates.  When they started specifically recording Hispanic numbers in 1972, over 33% of all Hispanic students dropped out.  While Hispanics still have the highest rate of all ethnic groups, that percentage has dropped to 13.6% today.  African-American kids were dropping out at a rate of 29% in 1967, but today their percentage is down to 7%, which is at the national average.  White students have seen a drop in the same period of time from 15% to 5%.  At NFVHS we do not have a minority population that is large enough to establish trends, though we do pay very close attention to those students as we know some face particular cultural challenges that make them more inclined to leave school before they earn a diploma.

Low-income students are much more likely to drop out than their middle-class peers.  This hasn’t changed as poverty has been a factor for years.  At one time when there was a higher percentage of working poor, students dropped out to help generate income for the family.  At one time, kids living in poverty dropped out at a rate of about five times their high-income peers.  Today that has risen to ten-times high-income kids, and 2.4 times more likely than middle-income kids.  Many teachers will tell you today that the reason is a lack of value placed on education by the family.  The future is not totally grim as the dropout rate for low-income kids in 1975 was 16% and now that number sits below 10%.  However, this is a very troubling statistic as generational poverty has become a standard and expectation for many who depend on entitlement programs.  In our school this is the most at-risk demographic, and we are seeing more students enroll from homes where poverty is a genuine issue.  Poverty is an American problem holding back the education of millions of students.

Students with disabilities are still being left behind by schools.  At a national level, students with learning or physical disabilities drop out at a rate of about 36%.  However, that is not the case in our district.  In fact, we are very proud of the success of our students in our special education programs.  Yes, we have had students who have an IEP drop out, but over the past eight years they make up less than 10% of our special education population, and over half of those that did drop out transferred into our high school, some of them with extreme behavior needs, and did not have the benefit of learning in our system for more than a year.  To the contrary, we are very proud at NFVHS of our programs for students with disabilities.

Men and women drop out at around equal rates.  Most people probably imagine that the typical dropout is male, but in the past forty years, there have only been four years on the national level where male dropouts were significantly greater than females.  Over the past eight years at our high school 58% of the dropouts were boys.  In the past three years, 64% have been girls.

Washington D.C. has the lowest high school graduation rate and Iowa has the highest.  This statistic remains constant, at least with Iowa at the top.  Iowa’s graduation rate has been around 88% for the past few years and just reached 90.8% in 2015.  Our’s has consistently been comfortably above 90% for many years.  We are not perfect, but we have a good track record of students completing their education and earning a diploma.  

The positive thing is that in our country fewer students are dropping out.  That was a fundamental goal of President Bush’s No Child Left Behind policy passed in the early 2000’s.  The consequences of leaving school without a diploma are huge.  Lifetime earnings drop dramatically and the risk of all kinds of negative social implications increase.  Education is still the best path to upward mobility.  We work hard to prevent students from dropping out, but ultimately the individual has the final decision.  All that said, the proudest day we have each year at NFVHS is when we honor those students who complete their education, earn a diploma, and celebrate by walking across the stage in their cap and gown!

What Majors Pay-off With The Big Bucks?

Our guidance counselor, Bill Clark, shared this article with me a while back.  We run across quite a few of these types of things, more so now with the renewed emphasis on career exploration and development being placed at the secondary school level in Iowa.  This one is a very easy to read, straight-forward view of majors and what an estimate would be for entry level salaries and pay.  Take a few minutes and look it over, spend some time with your child looking at it, and keep it handy for future conversations when the topic of “What are you going to do with your life?” come up!  

50 Highest Paying College Majors

https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/50-highest-paying-college-majors/

The Problem With Average

One of the topics that has been discussed a lot in our work moving from a traditional grading system to one that is standards-based has to do with using an average.  For as long as I can remember teachers have used averaging to determine student’s grades.  There have been different methods for doing that, but the most common is most likely something you will recognize, at least in high school classes.  Each assignment would be given a point value and over the course of a grading term the teacher would record the total number of points possible as well as the total number of points that each student accumulated.  When it came time to determine a grade, the teacher would divide the number possible into the number the student accumulated — average — to determine a percentage.  This percentage would then be compared to a grading scale to determine what letter grade the student had earned. 

Years ago some teachers would adhere to “the curve” which was also based on average and in a bell shape.  A close friend and mentor of mine once told me that most of life is based on the bell curve, everything from intelligence to height.  There are more people in the middle — average — than at either extreme.  I once heard that 5 foot 10 inches is the average height for American men, meaning most of us are that tall, give or take an inch.  In the classroom for years it was said that a letter grade of C is average, and in the bell curve classroom, regardless of what all of the students scored, the instructor would assign most students a C.  Eventually, however, educators tended to move away from this toward what is called a criterion-referenced system, which basically meant a criterion was established and students would get the grade based on how they scored compared to the criteria.

While using the average has been common practice for years, we will be for the most part setting it aside as we go forward with standards based grading.  A major reason for that is because there are problems with average.  Rick Wormeli, one of the leaders in the grading reform movement, points out a number of reasons. One of the most obvious is because society’s definition of normal or average changes over time.  I mentioned above that in the traditional grading system, C was considered average in the A-B-C-D-F system.  However, talk to a teacher who has been in the classroom for thirty years and they will tell you that their “average” has shifted.  In that system the dominant number of grades should be C, however, many teachers saw an inversion with more high grades and more low grades than C’s.  And, if you ask those same teachers whether the quality of C was the same thirty years ago as it is today, to a person they will tell you “No.”  The quality has declined.  In reality, today’s A looks a lot more like yesterday’s C.  There are numerous reasons for this grade inflation, but the fundamental reason is tremendous pressure from various forces on teachers.  Another example of this in a non-school setting are ribbon placings at the county fair.  In the Danish ribbon system of blue, red, and white, red was the average and white was below average.  However, due to hurting young people’s feelings judges started giving virtually no white ribbons and thus the curve was shifted with the introduction of the purple ribbon being better than a blue.  Technically white ribbons can still be rewarded, but unless a project does not meet clearly defined minimum standards, they are not given.  Today, a blue ribbon is average whereas they were once rewarded to the best.  

A very important reason that average is no longer of use is because standards based grading is criterion referenced.  Averaging is used to rank and separate people.  We have taken steps to eliminate that in the past six years in other ways because fundamentally our goal is to assess students on what they have learned and how well they have learned it, not rank them.  Our goal is that everyone completes the standards and for that reason it makes no sense to average and rank students.  Learning is not a competition.  Some will learn at a higher level than others, and that’s fine.  Some will learn faster than others, and that is fine.

Wormeli also points out that averaging was invented in statistics to get rid of the influence of any one sample error in experimental design.  It is a way to eliminate the outlier result in order to get an overall general idea about performance.  When it comes to learning, more specifically measuring learning, it is more important to look along a continuum and to determine what a student ultimately learns.  For example, on a four point scale, one being low, over five assessments on a learning target a student scores 1-1-2-4-4.  Would you say that the student has successfully learned the target?  Would you give them a score of 4?  Or, does the average of 2.4 better reflect the student’s learning?  With two consecutive scores of 4 I would say that the student has learned it quite well.  If we were to award the average, that does not indicate how well he has learned.  It would be misinformation.

A common application of average that many of us tune in to is sports, and no sport is more obsessed with numbers and statistics than baseball.  Isn’t it interesting that the most common average used in baseball is batting average, which is basically the number of hits a player gets divided by the number of official at-bats.  Even in at the highest level of play — Major League Baseball — the very best hitters have an average a bit over 30%, or in baseball terms, .300.  As of September 12, 2016, of the hundreds of players on major league rosters, 22 players have an average of .300 or better, with Daniel Murphy of the Washington Nationals leading with .344.  Now certainly they use average in a different manner than we typically do in the classroom, but in recent years the decision-makers in baseball have decided that this statistic does not tell us enough about the value of a player.  General managers, managers, and coaches have started paying a lot more attention to other statistics, and experts in “saber metrics” have been hired by many teams to crunch data to help make decisions to improve the team’s odds of winning.   OPS, or “On Base Plus Slugging Percentage” is a statistic that many believe is more important and accurate in determining a player’s value to the team.  The same with WAR — Wins Above Replacement — which is a statistic used to summarize a player’s total contributions to a team in one statistic.  Would it surprise you that Daniel Murphy ranks quite a bit lower in both of those last two statistics than he does with batting average?  The point being made is that there is a lot more to the story than an average, which is very limiting and captures just a very small snapshot of the big picture, not only on the baseball field, but  in the classroom as well.

As we move into this new phase of grading at NFVHS our goal is to provide a more comprehensive view of what a student has learned and what they can do.  There is a lot more to it than looking at a grade average in a class, and as we start to use this system I am sure that we will be much better prepared to focus on those things a student does not know so that he/she does have the knowledge base they need for the next stage in their life after high school.

Success In The New Economy

We have shown the linked video to a couple different parent groups and figured that we should make it available for everyone.  One of the true difficulties that we face with high school students is career guidance.  In fact, the Iowa Department of Education has restructured Career and Technical Education requirements for schools placing a much greater emphasis on career guidance.  The primary reason, according to DE officials, is because employers in our state are not able to find the highly skilled professionals they need.  With the ever-changing world of work making it very difficult for young people to see beyond a few years, this is a very difficult task.  However, there are a couple of absolute guiding principles that we can follow. 

First and foremost, once a student graduates from high school s/he must have additional education.  There is simply not enough low-skill occupations that pay a living wage.  Yes, in our part of the state there are manual labor jobs available right now, such as milking, working a packing plant and mowing grass, to name a few.  However, even occupations like these are seeing changes due to automation and technology.  The reality is that to earn a decent income and to make oneself upwardly mobile, a college education is imperative.

The second absolute is that “college” means advanced education that ends up in a degree or certification.  It does not only mean a bachelors degree at a four-year college or university.  For many of us, myself included, the fundamental belief is that in order to have a career that would lead to a life living comfortably in the middle-class, one must go to a four-year college or university.  I emphasize the word “go” in the previous sentence because many, many Iowa high school graduates have gone off to college but only around 30% of them actually graduate.  However, just as convinced as I have been that one needs to go to a four-year college, my attitude is changing because the world is changing.  This has been very hard!  But when one considers that a very high percentage of four-year graduates do not get good paying jobs in their major, and many of them are saddled with incredible debt for years, it does make sense to look at two-year or certification programs to receive an education that will prepare one for a highly skilled occupation that pays very well and has benefit packages on par with those provided in the white-collar world.  The new reality is that our best and brightest must at least consider some of these opportunities!

Right now my second child is pondering what he is going to do after he graduates.  I have put the two-year option in front of him, and at times we discuss what that may look like.  I do not think he is going to end up going that direction, at least to start.  However, it does need to be part of the conversation.  My other child is starting her third year at Loras College, and honestly I am concerned about what opportunities are going to be there for her when she graduates in a couple of years.  She is a business major and there was a time when those folks had a lot of options upon graduation, but that is not the case right now.  I guess we will see what happens!

Director Brian Y. Marsh and writer/narrator Kevin Fleming put together this film that provides a look at jobs in the new economy.  It was supported by Citrus College in Glendora, CA to provide students with information for the preparation today for tomorrow’s market realities.  One must consider technical skill acquisition, real-world application and academics in tandem with a classic education.  It’s worth a look.

Success In The New Economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs6nQpVI164

Generation iY and More!

I subscribe to a weekly newsletter from Tim Elmore and have found a number of articles that I have shared in this blog or used as a resource for other articles that I have written.  In addition, the teaching staff at NFVHS has read his work on a number of occasions.  Elmore resonates with me on a couple of different levels from the standpoint of both an educator and a parent.  His priority is to develop leaders with this generation of young people.  He also includes a lot of advice to help all of us do a better job in the development of young adults.  

Here’s a series of videos that you may find interesting and useful.  There is some really good information about our kids and what makes them tick.  Enjoy!

Tim Elmore Video Series --

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6vzXkAGvqzcduvpIVZsT3yQrVupINXr6&utm_source=Master+List+%28Monthly%2C+Weekly%2C+Daily%2C+Events+%26+Offers%29&utm_campaign=d8d2c9430b-Gen_iY_2_0_Video_Series_Reminder9_22_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b8af65516c-d8d2c9430b-304263301

Must We Give Our Kids Everything They Want?

As I reflect on the 18 years I lived under my parent’s roof, as well as lessons they continue to teach me, I believe that one of the most important — if not the most important — lesson I learned was "you don’t need it even if you want it."  Now my wife may argue that I forget this from time to time, but if I put the whole list of my wants in front of her, it would take her quite a while to get through the list!  What I also recall, and still see today, is that many of those things that I wanted simply sit in a corner unused or have been stuck in a closet, forgotten until I am looking for something and run across them, or my wife has pulled them out and has them lying on a table at a garage sale.  I see the same thing with my kids in some respects, but due to the fact that my spouse strongly subscribes to the philosophy of "needs and moderation," there isn’t so much.  It is no surprise that one of her favorite songs is the Rolling Stones’ You Can’t Always Get What You Want.  You know the lyrics!

No, you can't always get what you want 

You can't always get what you want 

You can't always get what you want 

But if you try sometime you find 

You get what you need 

For a number of generations our society has become more materialistic, with each succeeding one identifying what were once “wants” as “needs.”  There have been various groups and subcultures pop up in the past sixty years that have disavowed materialism from time to time, and there are religious groups such as the Amish that have maintained that as a cornerstone of their faith.  But for the most part, we Americans have consistently sought to have more “things.”  Perhaps there is a coming shift with the increased popularity of tiny houses, but my guess is that this is just a fad as well.  

Back when I was growing up there were a number of years when my family struggled and things were pretty tight around the Wolverton house, but even as we solidified ourselves in the middle class, my parents were frugal and I can remember a number of times that my mom said, “We can’t afford it.”  The funny thing was that we accepted that and there was no shame in not being able to afford something.  My parents both grew up during the war years and for whatever reason learned to spend their money wisely, and when you purchased something, make sure you bought high quality.  So, when I was a kid, we did have quality things because they would last and there was no shame in that fact that we didn’t always have the latest fashion or latest gadget, nor did we have those coming of age things like a stereo when we went into middle school or a car when we turned 16.

But times have changed quite a bit from the 1970’s and for whatever reason many parents are concerned about how they appear to others.  It seems that for many they are constantly concerned as to whether or not they are “good parents” and whether their children have the same things or opportunities as the other kids.  If their child has less than other kids, how are they going to be treated?  Are they going to have friends?  Will kids make fun of them?  In essence, they don’t want their child to do without, whether they can afford it or not.  They have a very difficult time telling their kids “No” and some feel guilt or shame having to admit that they cannot afford something.  They are kind of backed into a corner, and because of that they seek other ways to make sure their child gets what they want.

This all brings into question the responsibility of being a parent.  In my opinion, the bottom line for parents is to provide a roof over their child's head, food, clothes, and basic supplies, in a loving and caring environment.  When it goes beyond that, the parent needs to be able to afford it, and more important, to teach their child to live within their means.  I know of a number of people, and have some very close friends, who take on a second job to provide their children with some of those extras, whether it be to play on a sports team or to have a few of their material wants met.  The parent sees that as their responsibility.  Some sacrifice being able to spend some time with their child to accomplish this.  But in the mind of the parent, it is worth it to them and they see it as their job as a parent.  I cannot argue with that.  I also have friends that have overextended themselves, charging up their credit cards to in order to get those “things” that their children so desperately want.

What does seem out of bounds, and something we see more of at school, is when some parents expect others to bear the responsibility of providing for their kids.  I am not talking about free or reduced lunches.  That’s a very important program to many families, and I do not care what anyone says, we can all pitch in to help out with a child’s fundamental needs.  No, what I am talking about is expecting the community to pay for some of those “extras” that come with a public school education.  What are those extras?  Perhaps the most obvious are various trips.  Many trips include fundraising activities that shift the burden of paying for the trip to the community.  A number of years ago I figured out how much a band trip to Florida cost and the amount of money that went into that trip from fundraising, and posed the question “Why are we sending thousands, in fact tens-of-thousands of dollars out of the community?”  We were asking individuals and businesses to pay for what was actually a vacation with the band marching once or twice at Disneyworld.  That bothered me at the time, and still bothers me now when groups have to rely on large amounts of money from other people to take kids on a trip.  While I have not seen it first-hand, I have heard about parents establishing GoFundMe.com sites to raise money so their child can go on a trip, or have enough money to play on a club team.  Really?  I am all for helping others, but there must come a time when parents are able to tell their kids “We can’t afford it” without shame or guilt.  Or, the parent can go to the bank and get a short-term loan so their child can participate.  Before his senior year in high school, my brother worked an average of twelve-hours a day so that he could pay for a trip to wrestle in Germany.  He didn’t go door to door asking for donations.

This really touched on a couple of topics, and perhaps I drifted a bit from the original intent.  The reality is that there are often legitimate reasons we are in the financial situation we find ourselves in, and it is unfortunate that we have to say “No” to our kids.  But the reality is that many times in life we bump into a “No.”  I have a close friend that ended up losing a job due to bounced checks and other financial problems because he was determined to make sure that his kids had all of the best things that other kids had.  Was that worth it?  What would have happened had he said to them, “We can’t afford that, and you’ll be fine.”  I think our kids will survive quite well when they have to go without, as long as it isn’t food, shelter, and clothing.  As parents we just need to quit worrying what other people think.  We need to teach those life lessons to our children that there are times when you have to live within your means.  We do not have to look very far to see horrible examples in this country where people “spent” what they didn’t have.  “No” seems like a pretty good lesson sometimes.

What Do You Want To Do? I Don’t Know!

I have no idea how often this question is asked in the hallways, classrooms and offices in American high schools.  And, according to what is often reported, the response is very often the one in the title of this article — “I don’t know.”  “Where are you going to college?”  “I don’t know.”  “What are your plans after you graduate?”  “I don’t know.”  “What are you interested in doing?”  “I don’t know.”  I’m not talking about conversations with freshmen . . . these are the talks that we are having with juniors and seniors!  And who can blame them!  There is so much uncertainty out there right now, and the messages that are being given to them are not helpful at all.  Toss in the fact that things change at such a dramatic rate right now and we often find ourselves having a difficult time providing useful guidance.  Let’s take a look at some of those messages out there that are being received by 16, 17, and 18-year olds that are trying to figure out where they go once they graduate from high school.

First and most important, this is not unusual.  Even though it is very stressful for some students — and their parents — it is not unusual for graduating seniors to be undecided as to what they want to major in at college or pursue for a career.  And it isn’t just high school students.  According to various studies, somewhere between 50 and 80% of college students change their majors at least once!  The National Center for Education Statistics published a report that states 85% of college students in the United States end up changing their major at least once and on average, college students change their major three times in their college career.  A study out of Brigham Young University determined that an average of 85% of students change at least once.  A more conservative result was reported by the University of LaVerne out of California where they determined that about 50% of incoming freshmen come in without a declared major, and between 50 and 70% of students change their’s at least once.  

The most obvious reason for the uncertainty is the rapidly changing world that we live in, in most part due to constant changes in technology.  What makes this more confusing is that when one follows current job market trends, those are changing at a rapid rate as well.  In fact, some sources report that up to 60% of the jobs in the future do not even exist at this point!  How is an 18-year old supposed to prepare for a future career that doesn’t even exist?  In our history some types of jobs have disappeared.  There is not a huge demand for coopers or wheelwrights any more, and blacksmiths have for the most part gone by the wayside as well.  With this uncertain forecast, we also see about 50% of college graduates pursing careers that are not related to their majors.  This is a discussion that could lend itself to a couple of articles, but the reality is that this generation of young people is headed into a future with more questions than answers, and there is no reason to be surprised that many do not have a clue what they want to do!

Angela Duckworth and other researchers will point out that this generation suffers from over-involved parents and a lack of grit.  For many millennials their parents have paved their way by doing whatever needs to be done for them so that their have a smooth and easy life.  This has been a huge disservice because many of these kids have been living in somewhat of a bubble world and have not had to think or depend on themselves.  Then, at the age of 17, they are being asked, “What are you going to do with your life?”  The honest answer for many is “I haven’t had to think about that!”  A number of parents have made significant sacrifices so they could give their children whatever they want, and the result is that kids haven’t had to go without, or they have not had to sacrifice in order to obtain the “things” that are important to them.  There is not an appreciation of hard work or overcoming obstacles on their own.  Now they are faced with a decision and many of them realize that their parents cannot make if for them, even though some try!  

On the other side of this issue is increased pressure by the Iowa Department of Education to have students identify a career path while still in high school.  It is not fair to place this only on the their shoulders as they are responding to an immense amount of pressure from politicians who are reacting to pleas from business people in our state for skilled employees.   I get it.  For the economy and future of our state, we need a high quality work force.  We cannot afford to see our best young people leave the state for opportunities elsewhere.  And it is important that we look at opportunities through a clear lens rather than rose-colored glasses.  Thus, here is the paradox.  In Iowa right now there is a high demand for highly skilled workers in the manufacturing and tech world, as well as in the health care and service industry.  And, jobs in those fields are starting to pay better and often include good benefit packages.  At the same time, one cannot ignore the premise that people should follow their passion, whatever that may be, and if opportunity for that pursuit does not exist in Iowa, what is a person to do?  That is one more dilemma faced by graduates that adds to their confusion about their future.

I know what it is like to have a child say “I don’t know,” and I wake up in the middle of the night worrying about the future.  I appease my worries by telling myself that they are bright kids and they will do fine, but that does not absolve me of all of my worries.  When I switch from my parent mode to my educator mode I recognize that they are no different than the majority of their peers, and I stress that the value of education is to become an educated person.  That may sound kind of stupid, but an educated populace is what our economy is based on, and as long as our students learn how to learn, and develop skills like problem solving, collaboration, and grit, they will make it in this world.  It may not happen four years after they leave the halls of NFVHS, and most are going to have four or five careers over their lifetime.  They have to make good choices!  Following one’s passion is great, but they also have to be smart about this and recognize that there may not necessarily be a job that falls within that passion.  At that point, they need to figure out how they can pursue that passion and at the same time earn a comfortable living.  An educated individual will be able to do that.